Market Outlook for SeamlessMarket Outlook for Seamless Steel Pipes in 2025: New Opportunities Emerge Amid Structural Adjustments Steel Pipes in 2025New Opportunities Emerge Amid Structural Adjustments

May 15, 2025

The global seamless steel pipe market is advancing despite challenges. By 2025, the market is expected to exhibit characteristics of “regional differentiation and high-end innovation.” Although China’s production has decreased from a peak of 31.5 million tons in 2023 to 29.8 million tons in 2024, the three international leaders—Vallourec, Tenaris, and TMK—still control 70% of the capacity outside China. Currently, global market prices are experiencing more intense fluctuations. The average price of China’s 20# standard pipe ranges between 4,335 and 4,758 yuan per ton, with theoretical profit margins narrowing to between -10 and 130 yuan per ton for most enterprises.

Analysis of Key Driving Factors

Demand Side:

– Demand in the traditional energy sector (oil well pipes and pipeline pipes) has stabilized, while demand growth for tubes used in polysilicon and semiconductors exceeds 15% annually.
– Infrastructure investments are boosting Asian markets, and energy pipeline projects in Central and Eastern Europe are accelerating implementation.

Supply Side:

– China’s capacity utilization rate is expected to rebound to 70%, but total capacity remains at 45.43 million tons, still facing overcapacity pressure.
– Environmental protection policies have driven short-process steel mills to adopt technological upgrades, while long-process enterprises continue to enjoy cost advantages.

Three Major Trends in Industry Transformation

– Technology Upgrade: The domestic production rate of nuclear power tubes and aerospace precision tubes has surpassed 60%.
– Export Restructuring: Chinese seamless steel pipes have gained a foothold in Southeast Asia due to their price advantage, though they face potential anti-dumping risks from the European Union.
– Capacity Integration: Regional mergers and acquisitions may surge in 2025, leading to an increase in industry concentration.

According to predictions by the China Research and Analysis Institute, the global seamless pipe market size is expected to grow at a CAGR of 5.99% from 2025 to 2030, exceeding 660.1 billion yuan by 2028. In the near term, third-quarter prices may stabilize due to raw material cost support, but the sustainability of demand will depend on macroeconomic policy effects.